* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942010 09/05/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 7 9 5 8 17 14 13 16 10 6 3 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 3 4 3 5 -2 -2 -3 -1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 260 247 226 202 194 198 181 214 221 279 18 124 182 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 133 131 129 124 118 117 114 116 117 118 118 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 49 51 48 46 46 41 39 36 30 28 25 25 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 6 5 3 4 5 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 28 38 40 46 52 47 47 39 36 35 30 23 17 200 MB DIV 47 48 34 28 36 37 -2 3 -15 -27 -25 -27 -9 LAND (KM) 1566 1544 1524 1519 1517 1515 1474 1405 1319 1234 1123 989 851 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.8 14.3 15.3 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.4 17.3 17.0 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 142.2 142.2 142.1 141.9 141.6 141.2 141.3 141.8 142.5 143.3 144.4 145.8 147.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 20 17 14 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -3. -1. -1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -12. -16. -16. -15. -14. -12. -9. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942010 INVEST 09/05/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942010 INVEST 09/05/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY