* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/05/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 37 47 58 68 77 86 96 106 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 37 47 58 68 77 86 96 96 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 24 25 29 34 43 57 75 94 111 112 SHEAR (KT) 15 15 14 13 9 11 5 8 2 9 3 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 2 2 1 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 88 86 91 101 95 73 65 28 22 23 5 38 52 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 149 153 156 166 169 171 170 167 163 164 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 144 149 154 166 169 168 165 159 153 155 158 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 40 41 40 40 45 45 47 48 50 55 56 61 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 40 37 35 34 27 19 14 18 22 33 24 33 21 200 MB DIV 29 39 18 -7 -13 10 3 20 18 32 22 35 19 LAND (KM) 1329 1288 1235 1125 1022 827 611 309 61 46 38 34 11 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.9 17.9 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 49.2 50.3 51.3 52.6 53.9 56.9 60.0 62.9 65.5 67.5 69.0 70.7 72.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 13 15 14 13 11 9 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 61 71 79 84 85 97 100 91 110 106 98 106 119 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 22. 27. 33. 37. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 12. 22. 33. 43. 52. 61. 71. 81. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/05/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/05/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/05/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)