* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 09/05/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 48 57 64 66 69 66 64 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 34 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 8 9 8 12 4 9 13 21 26 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 1 4 0 0 -1 1 -2 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 41 31 44 22 19 24 355 12 286 298 295 290 306 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.4 27.1 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 161 161 161 164 165 170 171 172 172 127 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 144 144 143 144 147 150 154 159 158 157 112 87 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 11 9 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 7 700-500 MB RH 82 81 78 76 77 72 70 69 68 70 66 60 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 8 7 8 7 6 6 4 5 3 5 850 MB ENV VOR 90 82 82 81 80 66 63 49 37 -4 -21 -35 -32 200 MB DIV 63 57 71 55 47 31 37 45 39 20 35 25 38 LAND (KM) 41 46 49 43 38 -2 -41 -183 -335 -445 -509 -626 -705 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.5 22.5 23.9 25.5 27.4 29.5 32.0 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 95.6 95.9 96.1 96.4 96.6 97.3 98.3 99.6 100.9 101.9 102.1 101.5 99.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 4 4 4 6 8 10 10 10 12 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 15 22 33 15 21 1 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 33. 38. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -4. -6. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 28. 37. 44. 46. 49. 46. 44. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 09/05/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 09/05/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 09/05/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)