* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942010 09/05/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 14 18 9 13 11 8 5 3 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 3 2 5 1 -3 -2 -3 -1 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 220 235 205 197 210 220 216 234 241 288 246 193 231 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 131 129 127 123 119 117 116 116 115 116 117 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 51 49 45 45 45 40 36 30 29 25 21 22 17 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 6 5 5 4 2 3 4 5 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 32 35 41 50 53 47 47 43 34 20 20 14 10 200 MB DIV 50 34 33 39 49 0 22 1 -18 -34 -39 -17 2 LAND (KM) 1520 1501 1484 1480 1479 1427 1345 1239 1126 1009 858 664 463 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.5 16.4 17.2 17.6 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 142.5 142.4 142.3 142.1 141.9 142.0 142.5 143.3 144.3 145.4 146.9 148.9 151.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 16 13 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -5. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -17. -16. -15. -13. -11. -9. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942010 INVEST 09/05/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942010 INVEST 09/05/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY