* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/05/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 50 61 70 79 87 98 104 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 50 61 70 79 87 98 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 34 41 51 67 87 108 121 67 SHEAR (KT) 12 14 13 12 10 8 6 6 6 4 4 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 1 2 3 -2 -1 -6 0 -5 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 89 88 107 109 90 113 53 75 22 41 9 255 318 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 151 156 161 167 170 172 171 169 165 161 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 143 146 153 160 167 168 168 165 161 155 151 152 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 44 42 44 45 45 46 46 46 49 51 54 57 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 34 33 32 25 22 15 18 16 26 26 29 37 24 200 MB DIV 31 4 -10 -11 -3 8 20 11 25 22 22 36 16 LAND (KM) 1308 1256 1154 1034 921 732 606 373 176 64 68 8 -73 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.3 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 50.0 51.1 52.2 53.5 54.8 57.6 60.3 62.6 64.7 66.4 68.1 69.6 71.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 69 79 83 82 86 102 112 99 114 115 101 99 94 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 22. 27. 33. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 8. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 25. 36. 45. 54. 62. 73. 79. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/05/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 79.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/05/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/05/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)