* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 09/05/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 42 51 60 68 73 76 77 75 71 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 42 41 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 37 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 15 14 6 7 10 3 12 4 4 12 15 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 2 2 0 -4 0 0 -3 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 30 46 40 2 13 358 6 305 333 266 289 285 292 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.6 29.3 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 161 161 162 164 165 171 171 171 171 158 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 143 145 144 145 148 149 155 158 161 160 138 93 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.9 -50.9 -51.4 -50.5 -51.1 -50.6 -51.3 -50.8 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 11 8 8 12 9 14 11 15 11 13 5 700-500 MB RH 80 79 76 75 73 70 69 68 68 72 66 57 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 7 8 5 6 4 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 83 80 80 81 74 68 61 45 23 1 -5 -8 -31 200 MB DIV 50 44 56 44 37 40 16 40 15 42 30 12 19 LAND (KM) 55 59 64 49 34 -4 -78 -224 -366 -506 -567 -626 -690 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.7 22.8 24.0 25.3 26.8 28.6 30.8 33.2 LONG(DEG W) 95.6 95.8 96.0 96.4 96.7 97.5 98.6 100.0 101.3 102.5 103.0 102.7 101.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 7 8 9 9 9 10 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 26 31 42 16 23 1 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 35. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 26. 35. 43. 48. 51. 52. 50. 46. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 09/05/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 09/05/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 09/05/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)