* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942010 09/05/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 3 8 11 10 11 9 6 5 1 7 9 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 -3 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 134 163 179 186 218 205 218 179 123 110 126 133 146 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 131 129 127 126 124 123 124 124 126 128 129 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 53 48 48 48 46 46 42 39 36 32 33 29 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 29 35 38 38 29 30 25 23 22 20 18 8 200 MB DIV 36 29 40 40 24 -16 -13 -11 -18 -3 -2 26 0 LAND (KM) 1520 1509 1498 1488 1478 1411 1324 1222 1119 973 832 681 557 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.3 15.2 14.8 14.7 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 142.5 142.4 142.2 142.2 142.1 142.5 143.2 144.1 145.2 146.8 148.7 150.8 152.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 4 3 3 4 4 5 6 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 18 15 13 8 5 3 2 1 3 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -11. -9. -5. -4. -2. 2. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942010 INVEST 09/05/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942010 INVEST 09/05/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED