* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/05/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 54 65 74 82 92 101 108 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 54 65 74 82 71 45 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 43 56 74 96 99 57 49 SHEAR (KT) 15 13 11 10 9 4 7 4 5 4 7 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 3 5 4 -1 0 -2 -1 -5 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 85 96 95 83 86 53 47 62 40 356 15 303 328 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 154 159 165 169 170 172 171 165 162 161 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 145 149 157 163 168 168 168 165 157 152 151 154 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 39 41 44 43 46 45 49 50 50 52 55 53 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 25 22 21 14 20 16 27 24 34 15 11 200 MB DIV 11 -8 -2 3 14 7 28 2 9 12 14 15 3 LAND (KM) 1261 1153 1048 940 842 683 475 238 55 68 -15 -83 22 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 51.2 52.4 53.5 54.8 56.1 58.9 61.5 63.9 66.1 67.9 69.7 71.4 73.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 83 82 83 87 97 102 60 112 115 102 95 93 98 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 22. 27. 33. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 8. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 29. 40. 49. 57. 67. 76. 83. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/05/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/05/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/05/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)