* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 09/05/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 42 50 60 68 72 74 74 71 66 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 35 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 33 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 14 9 11 10 8 10 5 7 9 17 19 29 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 3 4 0 -1 -3 4 -1 -1 -2 5 0 SHEAR DIR 39 31 31 36 34 347 26 324 275 277 284 287 268 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.5 29.7 25.2 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 162 164 165 169 171 171 171 165 109 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 146 147 149 148 151 154 157 158 146 98 89 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.4 -50.4 -50.5 -50.7 -50.3 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 10 11 12 11 13 11 12 7 10 700-500 MB RH 78 80 80 76 74 73 71 69 72 67 60 46 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 10 10 11 9 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 98 101 85 77 85 71 69 24 3 -2 -8 -4 200 MB DIV 28 42 51 35 36 44 40 38 32 28 38 35 22 LAND (KM) 56 48 41 29 -9 -45 -163 -293 -441 -514 -568 -631 -727 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.3 20.6 21.1 21.6 22.7 23.9 25.1 26.5 28.3 30.5 33.1 35.9 LONG(DEG W) 95.9 96.2 96.5 97.0 97.4 98.3 99.4 100.6 101.8 102.5 102.2 100.2 96.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 13 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 33 26 15 9 3 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 25. 35. 43. 47. 49. 49. 46. 41. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 09/05/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 09/05/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 09/05/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)