* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942010 09/05/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 18 20 24 27 30 35 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 18 20 24 27 30 35 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 19 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 5 12 13 13 10 13 7 5 3 10 10 7 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 144 156 172 199 192 198 202 178 149 128 126 123 126 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 130 129 127 125 125 126 127 130 133 135 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 7 7 700-500 MB RH 51 48 45 45 44 45 40 40 35 31 31 28 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 33 40 42 36 30 27 24 26 33 30 20 10 200 MB DIV 18 30 31 32 2 -23 -15 -15 -32 7 48 8 -24 LAND (KM) 1447 1448 1451 1437 1424 1376 1303 1221 1106 988 866 756 681 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.6 14.9 14.8 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.1 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 143.3 143.0 142.7 142.7 142.6 142.9 143.5 144.4 145.8 147.5 149.6 151.9 154.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 4 4 3 3 4 5 8 10 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 10 18 12 10 10 10 10 8 6 10 25 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 4. 7. 10. 15. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942010 INVEST 09/05/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942010 INVEST 09/05/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY