* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/06/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 37 46 57 68 76 84 92 102 112 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 37 46 57 68 76 84 92 102 112 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 36 42 52 66 85 105 119 126 131 SHEAR (KT) 15 13 11 14 8 8 7 5 6 8 8 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 2 3 3 -1 1 -3 0 -3 -1 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 88 87 76 86 93 63 94 31 67 62 87 21 76 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 160 166 168 171 173 172 166 163 161 164 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 151 159 167 169 172 173 169 161 155 153 157 158 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 40 41 40 42 43 47 52 54 59 60 64 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 28 24 21 20 13 16 18 23 38 33 48 29 34 200 MB DIV -8 -1 13 28 15 5 -7 8 12 14 32 12 5 LAND (KM) 1161 1049 945 841 762 477 231 133 150 98 157 147 77 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.1 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.0 16.7 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.8 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 52.4 53.7 55.0 56.6 58.2 61.4 64.2 66.7 69.1 71.0 72.6 74.4 76.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 14 15 15 14 13 11 11 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 79 84 90 98 96 101 115 125 96 109 116 122 117 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 14. 22. 27. 31. 35. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 10. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 16. 27. 38. 46. 54. 62. 72. 82. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/06/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 89.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/06/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/06/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)