* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 09/06/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 46 54 63 67 69 67 61 57 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 7 7 11 7 10 18 25 35 30 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -1 -2 -4 2 -3 0 -5 0 4 4 SHEAR DIR 39 41 40 33 335 350 288 304 272 297 283 289 261 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.0 25.6 23.0 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 164 165 165 165 165 171 171 171 170 112 95 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 148 149 150 150 149 153 155 157 148 99 86 84 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -50.7 -51.0 -50.4 -51.0 -50.3 -50.9 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 8 11 14 10 15 11 14 10 11 4 9 700-500 MB RH 79 79 75 73 70 70 68 69 72 70 62 55 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 11 10 9 7 6 6 5 5 3 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 90 90 74 66 66 53 40 23 0 -19 -20 -12 -9 200 MB DIV 25 30 26 34 46 18 62 31 36 30 36 35 13 LAND (KM) 129 121 105 64 55 -71 -223 -369 -475 -568 -683 -764 -967 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.9 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.9 25.3 26.7 28.3 30.2 32.7 35.4 38.4 LONG(DEG W) 95.4 95.8 96.2 96.8 97.3 98.5 99.8 101.1 102.1 102.4 101.5 99.0 95.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 15 19 22 HEAT CONTENT 46 56 61 54 23 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 34. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 5. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 29. 38. 42. 44. 42. 36. 32. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 09/06/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 09/06/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 09/06/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)