* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/06/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 47 58 70 78 86 94 104 115 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 47 58 70 78 86 94 104 115 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 37 44 55 70 90 109 122 130 135 SHEAR (KT) 11 9 12 8 7 5 3 8 6 9 5 8 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 5 2 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 85 78 77 112 111 58 93 48 45 60 50 33 3 SST (C) 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 162 166 168 170 173 172 168 163 163 163 164 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 161 167 170 170 173 170 163 156 155 156 157 161 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 42 40 41 43 42 49 49 51 57 59 57 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 24 20 20 14 10 21 21 37 36 32 32 25 20 200 MB DIV -2 14 31 8 -3 -1 10 12 12 14 5 7 -3 LAND (KM) 1044 937 846 764 592 301 100 129 148 100 113 107 76 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.0 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 53.9 55.4 56.9 58.6 60.2 63.2 65.9 68.3 70.2 72.0 73.6 75.5 77.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 16 15 14 12 11 9 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 85 89 94 94 99 102 119 107 101 114 127 112 129 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 27. 31. 35. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 10. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 17. 28. 40. 48. 56. 64. 74. 85. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/06/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 92.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/06/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/06/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)