* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102010 09/06/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 46 51 55 63 70 74 73 70 64 58 53 V (KT) LAND 35 41 46 51 55 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 45 51 56 39 30 28 27 27 27 27 28 SHEAR (KT) 12 10 6 8 9 8 15 14 22 18 27 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 1 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 1 -2 12 SHEAR DIR 50 20 10 331 331 309 286 293 305 316 332 320 263 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 30.2 30.2 29.1 26.1 24.6 24.5 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 167 170 168 166 166 171 171 153 115 103 103 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 154 156 155 151 150 154 149 130 100 91 90 86 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 11 14 12 13 11 11 9 11 7 9 2 700-500 MB RH 76 75 72 70 66 69 67 67 63 64 56 56 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 10 9 8 7 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 64 52 50 38 34 14 -14 -32 -19 -25 -4 16 200 MB DIV 22 25 29 43 21 35 42 18 32 39 38 40 59 LAND (KM) 222 198 188 122 40 -143 -291 -370 -435 -533 -582 -701 -882 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.9 22.7 23.5 24.3 25.7 27.6 29.5 31.0 32.8 34.6 36.1 38.3 LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.3 95.8 96.6 97.4 98.8 100.3 100.5 99.8 98.9 96.5 93.7 91.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 10 11 10 9 9 11 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 71 67 61 66 11 0 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 25. 25. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 28. 35. 39. 38. 35. 29. 23. 18. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102010 TEN 09/06/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102010 TEN 09/06/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102010 TEN 09/06/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)