* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/06/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 38 47 58 69 76 83 91 101 112 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 38 47 58 69 76 83 91 101 112 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 43 54 69 89 107 118 125 131 SHEAR (KT) 10 11 7 5 3 5 4 6 10 7 11 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 5 3 0 1 -1 0 -3 -1 -8 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 76 80 113 117 74 102 41 61 52 88 34 81 355 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 155 155 158 161 160 158 158 158 160 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 153 154 154 153 155 156 154 150 150 150 152 155 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 41 40 41 41 45 48 49 55 57 59 56 55 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 18 17 17 13 19 18 21 38 28 27 16 16 7 200 MB DIV 7 28 7 2 5 0 13 6 8 15 -15 -5 0 LAND (KM) 942 850 768 606 447 172 102 153 104 155 151 77 53 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.8 16.7 16.7 16.8 17.1 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 55.5 57.0 58.5 60.1 61.6 64.5 67.0 69.2 71.1 72.8 74.5 76.2 78.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 14 13 11 10 9 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 88 93 92 99 71 108 123 96 108 119 120 116 133 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 25. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 11. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 17. 28. 39. 46. 53. 61. 71. 82. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/06/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 88.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/06/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/06/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)