* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL102010 09/06/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 61 65 71 76 73 68 59 53 43 36 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 53 44 32 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 45 52 59 64 47 33 29 27 27 27 29 29 30 SHEAR (KT) 9 8 12 13 17 16 17 25 21 31 29 42 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -2 -5 4 0 3 1 3 8 -1 -12 SHEAR DIR 4 345 305 301 302 256 279 268 305 291 293 276 261 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.7 28.7 24.7 22.3 21.1 20.6 21.4 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 166 163 161 164 147 103 89 85 84 87 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 158 152 147 144 145 128 90 80 77 76 79 81 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.2 -50.5 -50.5 -50.8 -50.4 -50.9 -50.8 -51.7 -51.5 -52.3 -52.7 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 15 12 11 12 9 13 5 8 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 67 66 61 66 67 66 64 64 53 54 48 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 9 9 10 10 12 8 9 6 9 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 59 41 30 10 24 4 -18 -30 -35 -37 -5 -7 49 200 MB DIV 15 14 25 24 22 65 39 33 49 53 67 27 57 LAND (KM) 216 178 96 -2 -68 -197 -432 -613 -723 -912 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.6 24.6 25.6 26.5 28.5 30.5 32.8 34.9 37.5 39.6 41.3 44.0 LONG(DEG W) 95.4 96.1 96.7 97.4 98.0 99.1 100.4 100.3 99.1 97.4 93.9 89.5 85.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 13 16 18 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 63 67 46 4 42 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 26. 31. 28. 23. 14. 8. -2. -9. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102010 HERMINE 09/06/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102010 HERMINE 09/06/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102010 HERMINE 09/06/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)