* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/06/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 37 41 50 62 73 80 87 93 102 111 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 37 41 50 62 73 80 69 70 79 88 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 47 61 78 95 88 87 103 116 SHEAR (KT) 9 6 3 2 6 3 4 7 10 7 9 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 1 0 1 -1 -2 -5 -4 -2 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 60 101 98 54 44 94 11 15 29 15 32 36 45 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 154 154 159 160 158 159 161 163 164 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 152 152 151 150 154 154 149 149 152 154 154 162 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 39 39 39 44 45 46 49 51 54 54 51 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 8 10 5 12 16 12 28 21 17 3 -8 -20 -27 200 MB DIV 26 12 -3 0 1 10 8 2 13 -6 -12 -10 -1 LAND (KM) 849 752 602 464 330 109 78 87 4 -10 22 88 76 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 57.2 58.7 60.1 61.5 62.8 65.3 67.6 69.5 71.2 72.8 74.5 76.4 78.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 90 94 97 74 93 112 111 94 105 66 98 126 142 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 9. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 20. 32. 43. 50. 57. 63. 72. 81. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/06/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 89.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/06/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/06/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)