* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL102010 09/06/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 67 73 78 79 74 71 61 50 40 36 V (KT) LAND 50 56 43 36 32 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 50 57 45 37 32 28 27 27 27 29 29 30 30 SHEAR (KT) 5 11 14 14 11 21 16 19 22 35 47 50 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 -2 -4 2 0 0 8 0 7 -2 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 330 279 300 292 269 269 252 278 273 278 269 267 264 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.7 28.6 24.3 21.7 20.8 19.9 19.4 21.7 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 169 165 161 163 165 146 100 86 83 80 80 89 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 152 146 146 147 128 88 77 75 73 73 79 75 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 -51.0 -51.4 -52.0 -52.3 -53.0 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 15 12 11 11 10 10 5 6 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 60 59 60 63 61 63 58 53 51 47 45 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 10 12 13 11 9 11 8 5 4 6 850 MB ENV VOR 34 30 9 30 15 -10 -22 -23 -11 4 25 22 10 200 MB DIV 19 42 30 17 38 53 55 45 57 105 29 33 54 LAND (KM) 122 17 -71 -125 -207 -447 -653 -805 -939 -999 -999 -999 -976 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 25.2 26.3 27.3 28.3 30.6 32.9 35.2 37.4 39.7 41.7 43.5 45.6 LONG(DEG W) 96.6 97.3 98.0 98.7 99.3 100.5 100.8 100.1 98.5 96.4 92.9 88.6 83.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 14 15 17 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 66 7 42 0 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 13 CX,CY: -5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 23. 28. 29. 24. 21. 11. 0. -10. -14. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102010 HERMINE 09/06/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102010 HERMINE 09/06/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102010 HERMINE 09/06/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)