* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/07/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 40 49 60 69 76 83 89 98 108 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 40 49 60 69 58 65 63 72 82 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 37 45 56 71 64 68 85 102 118 SHEAR (KT) 8 6 1 2 3 0 2 7 3 12 7 9 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 3 3 1 0 0 -6 -4 -5 -5 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 120 151 156 54 126 200 340 1 336 26 73 29 88 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 155 154 156 159 158 157 159 161 163 164 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 151 152 151 151 152 148 147 148 150 154 155 160 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 41 43 45 47 47 48 53 56 57 55 54 50 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 4 3 9 15 13 19 30 18 15 0 -3 -10 -9 200 MB DIV 22 4 2 20 10 12 15 -4 -7 -15 -20 -9 -4 LAND (KM) 714 564 417 279 151 45 45 47 -1 0 38 58 109 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.5 17.7 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 59.0 60.5 61.9 63.3 64.6 66.9 68.8 70.4 71.7 73.2 74.8 76.7 78.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 10 8 7 7 7 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 95 94 89 96 106 112 97 102 102 68 100 107 137 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 9. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 19. 30. 39. 46. 53. 59. 68. 78. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/07/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 96.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/07/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/07/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)