* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/07/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 38 50 61 69 78 85 97 109 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 38 50 61 69 78 85 97 109 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 30 35 43 54 71 93 112 126 135 SHEAR (KT) 8 2 1 4 4 2 2 6 3 8 3 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 178 188 171 185 208 336 319 25 74 86 155 48 325 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 158 159 161 160 160 158 158 158 162 164 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 153 154 156 157 153 152 149 150 151 156 160 159 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 44 45 46 45 50 51 55 58 59 57 53 49 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 13 18 16 22 34 37 22 17 10 9 2 3 200 MB DIV 3 -6 7 -2 8 23 11 17 0 -2 -13 -6 2 LAND (KM) 515 383 262 159 131 147 161 113 161 146 89 176 296 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.7 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 61.0 62.4 63.7 65.0 66.3 68.4 70.2 71.9 73.4 75.3 77.3 79.5 81.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 12 12 11 9 9 8 8 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 99 95 110 114 122 108 99 113 126 116 142 143 114 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 32. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -3. -1. 4. 12. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 13. 25. 36. 44. 53. 60. 72. 84. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/07/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 108.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/07/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/07/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)