* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL102010 09/07/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 57 60 63 58 55 47 40 35 30 24 V (KT) LAND 50 41 35 31 29 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 50 41 34 31 29 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 SHEAR (KT) 10 13 10 17 20 18 32 29 42 48 56 49 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 2 5 -3 4 -1 5 -1 -4 -12 -11 0 SHEAR DIR 287 283 262 245 260 255 278 282 276 271 278 274 284 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.4 28.2 23.5 21.6 20.8 20.0 20.2 21.3 19.6 17.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 165 160 141 96 86 84 81 82 86 81 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 145 148 142 123 85 78 76 74 74 77 73 70 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.5 -51.1 -51.6 -51.9 -52.9 -53.4 -54.8 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 8 7 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 61 63 60 60 63 62 57 50 47 44 38 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 13 12 12 13 11 12 10 9 13 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 10 37 23 -6 -17 -27 -45 -43 -34 0 13 6 -3 200 MB DIV 28 44 60 84 66 51 27 37 33 20 17 23 3 LAND (KM) -43 -96 -183 -301 -433 -648 -810 -993 -999 -999 -999 -853 -588 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 27.3 28.4 29.7 30.9 33.6 36.1 38.5 40.8 42.9 44.7 46.3 47.7 LONG(DEG W) 97.7 98.4 99.0 99.5 99.9 99.7 98.5 96.2 93.2 89.8 85.6 81.1 75.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 16 16 17 17 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 42 0 0 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 13 CX,CY: -4/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 8. 5. -3. -10. -15. -20. -26. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102010 HERMINE 09/07/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.5 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102010 HERMINE 09/07/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102010 HERMINE 09/07/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)