* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/07/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 20 23 33 46 58 67 76 86 97 108 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 20 23 33 46 58 67 76 86 97 108 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 19 20 21 24 30 39 52 71 92 111 123 SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 5 5 4 8 3 6 4 2 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 -2 -2 -6 -1 -4 -3 -6 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 160 126 182 205 275 3 360 62 42 112 350 213 334 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 161 163 162 160 157 157 158 160 162 166 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 155 158 159 157 152 147 148 149 152 155 159 156 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 47 49 46 48 50 55 52 58 56 51 50 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 24 23 25 35 46 35 34 13 12 5 8 1 200 MB DIV 3 12 2 24 13 18 12 8 -19 -14 -11 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 387 271 173 150 155 172 113 130 122 92 26 134 348 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.7 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 62.4 63.7 65.0 66.2 67.4 69.4 70.9 72.3 73.9 75.5 77.4 79.5 81.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 11 9 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 98 112 114 123 123 91 107 116 128 108 143 141 126 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. 0. 5. 13. 22. 28. 34. 38. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -3. -1. 4. 12. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 3. 13. 26. 38. 47. 56. 66. 77. 88. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/07/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 114.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/07/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/07/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)