* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL102010 09/07/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 33 35 35 35 29 25 21 21 23 18 V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 28 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 DIS SHEAR (KT) 10 10 16 21 20 29 30 50 59 56 58 56 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 4 3 -4 -2 2 3 2 -5 -9 -15 -12 N/A SHEAR DIR 287 264 241 254 257 269 286 280 278 285 281 290 N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.1 27.8 25.9 22.2 20.8 19.6 19.0 21.6 18.2 15.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 154 134 114 89 84 80 79 89 78 74 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 135 116 99 80 76 74 73 80 72 70 N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.3 -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 -51.6 -51.6 -52.6 -54.2 -56.0 -56.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 11 6 5 9 0 3 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 59 64 62 61 55 54 46 52 50 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 15 12 13 13 9 11 8 10 10 12 18 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 24 -5 -17 -9 -38 -33 -21 15 -38 5 -2 N/A 200 MB DIV 50 60 76 62 41 42 54 28 16 7 30 -17 N/A LAND (KM) -87 -198 -335 -447 -559 -745 -949 -999 -999 -999 -914 -519 N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.9 30.1 31.2 32.2 34.9 37.7 40.5 42.8 44.8 47.1 48.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.2 98.8 99.4 99.8 100.2 99.5 97.9 95.6 91.6 86.5 81.0 75.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 12 14 16 18 20 22 22 22 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 13 CX,CY: -3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 3. -3. -9. -13. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -7. -4. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -4. -2. -3. -1. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. -6. -10. -14. -14. -12. -17. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102010 HERMINE 09/07/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102010 HERMINE 09/07/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102010 HERMINE 09/07/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)