* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/07/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 37 50 63 73 81 89 97 106 118 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 37 50 63 73 81 89 97 106 118 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 39 50 68 89 112 130 138 141 SHEAR (KT) 1 4 5 6 5 3 9 4 10 3 6 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 1 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 -3 -4 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 297 199 225 262 305 9 20 5 60 49 61 299 91 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 163 161 160 158 157 158 158 162 165 161 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 159 160 157 155 150 148 150 151 157 161 157 160 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 13 700-500 MB RH 48 49 48 50 52 56 58 58 56 56 52 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 26 22 30 38 38 26 19 7 10 5 17 11 200 MB DIV 18 11 14 12 25 26 33 -5 3 -3 -2 24 17 LAND (KM) 191 144 153 162 180 113 169 191 133 143 292 179 183 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.6 16.6 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 64.6 66.0 67.3 68.5 69.7 71.6 73.1 74.7 76.4 78.4 80.7 83.2 85.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 12 11 11 8 7 8 9 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 93 103 107 100 95 100 116 113 109 129 100 100 127 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -1. 4. 11. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 12. 25. 38. 48. 56. 64. 72. 81. 93. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/07/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 99.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/07/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/07/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)