* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL102010 09/07/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 34 34 35 34 31 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 28 27 28 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 29 28 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 DIS SHEAR (KT) 10 20 18 11 20 31 32 53 56 54 50 34 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 -1 6 0 5 7 1 -8 -8 -12 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 260 250 268 254 260 277 270 281 279 273 271 281 N/A SST (C) 29.4 28.8 27.4 25.2 23.3 21.4 20.3 19.2 19.1 20.5 18.4 16.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 149 129 107 95 86 82 79 79 84 78 74 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 130 112 94 84 77 75 72 72 76 72 70 N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.4 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -51.0 -52.1 -53.1 -53.9 -55.2 -55.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 7 6 9 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 62 64 60 59 56 50 49 49 52 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 14 13 13 12 13 8 8 9 12 16 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 -17 -21 -20 -31 -41 -33 -10 1 15 9 -7 N/A 200 MB DIV 72 85 65 54 65 27 49 62 8 10 64 10 N/A LAND (KM) -211 -333 -455 -553 -659 -846 -999 -999 -999 -999 -896 -506 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.3 30.4 31.4 32.6 33.8 36.5 39.1 41.6 43.6 45.5 47.0 48.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.5 99.1 99.6 99.6 99.6 98.4 96.5 94.0 90.4 86.0 80.8 74.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 12 13 14 16 16 18 19 20 21 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 15 CX,CY: -3/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 2. -4. -10. -13. -15. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -6. -4. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -4. -12. -18. -22. -21. -20. -24. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102010 HERMINE 09/07/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102010 HERMINE 09/07/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102010 HERMINE 09/07/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)