* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912010 09/07/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 35 40 48 58 63 70 74 78 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 35 40 48 58 63 70 74 78 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 36 42 51 62 73 83 SHEAR (KT) 29 24 25 22 15 12 6 5 5 13 14 15 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 0 4 2 4 1 1 -3 -2 -6 -10 SHEAR DIR 74 80 94 109 126 112 113 100 103 105 75 50 50 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.6 28.2 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 136 134 134 137 140 139 133 133 140 146 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 132 132 131 132 136 141 139 133 132 139 142 145 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -51.5 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.3 -52.2 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 82 80 77 74 70 65 65 67 63 63 60 64 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 11 11 12 11 12 17 17 21 21 24 850 MB ENV VOR 18 28 49 54 56 36 52 57 60 75 77 70 58 200 MB DIV 48 24 26 37 28 -4 21 -6 47 52 9 -1 7 LAND (KM) 332 433 537 676 816 1127 1471 1825 1944 1657 1404 1200 1066 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.5 14.9 14.2 13.4 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 20.5 21.5 22.5 23.8 25.1 28.0 31.2 34.5 37.8 40.9 43.7 45.7 46.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 13 14 14 16 16 16 14 12 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 10 8 9 8 12 14 14 13 24 33 43 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 15. 23. 33. 38. 45. 49. 53. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST 09/07/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912010 INVEST 09/07/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED