* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952010 09/07/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 24 29 37 45 51 57 63 66 71 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 24 29 37 45 51 57 63 66 71 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 24 28 34 41 49 59 SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 9 7 8 6 6 8 4 6 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 2 0 -2 -2 -1 -5 -5 -5 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 147 141 127 118 105 118 85 57 41 70 50 71 51 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 132 133 135 138 140 143 143 143 144 145 146 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 42 42 44 41 40 41 38 39 40 43 43 45 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -7 -2 6 9 21 18 26 10 5 6 4 -3 200 MB DIV 3 -2 -3 4 0 -1 3 3 4 27 19 0 -21 LAND (KM) 1431 1375 1320 1248 1179 1048 941 885 879 925 1019 1130 1272 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.2 12.6 12.0 11.4 11.0 10.7 10.3 9.9 9.4 LONG(DEG W) 142.8 143.5 144.1 145.0 145.9 148.1 150.5 152.8 155.1 157.1 158.9 160.5 162.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 9 10 12 12 12 10 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 20 24 24 11 16 35 17 16 50 54 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 25. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 17. 25. 31. 37. 43. 46. 51. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952010 INVEST 09/07/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952010 INVEST 09/07/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY