* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/08/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 45 58 68 76 84 92 101 113 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 45 58 68 65 67 75 84 96 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 47 60 66 70 92 112 128 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 3 2 7 5 11 8 8 4 7 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 0 -2 -6 -4 -6 -4 -6 -1 -7 -2 SHEAR DIR 173 206 251 280 249 323 24 23 64 27 66 40 37 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 160 160 160 159 159 161 163 166 168 164 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 158 154 153 151 149 149 151 154 158 160 155 154 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 53 52 50 53 53 54 59 55 54 52 52 51 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 18 26 33 37 28 26 4 3 -1 7 -8 7 200 MB DIV 17 17 21 37 22 12 15 -8 -15 -12 -2 -7 17 LAND (KM) 131 124 122 140 103 72 54 77 -6 47 269 339 256 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 66.3 67.5 68.6 69.6 70.5 72.1 73.5 75.1 76.7 78.7 80.8 82.9 85.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 104 101 98 99 101 103 110 98 71 121 144 134 146 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 32. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 11. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 20. 33. 43. 51. 59. 67. 76. 88. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/08/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 100.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/08/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/08/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)