* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL102010 09/08/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 32 32 26 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 28 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 DIS SHEAR (KT) 20 23 19 22 29 38 52 51 51 61 60 45 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 4 6 1 -4 -4 -9 -13 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 235 263 267 267 268 276 278 272 274 273 275 276 N/A SST (C) 27.9 25.8 23.9 22.4 21.5 20.5 19.8 19.4 21.5 19.6 17.0 14.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 112 98 90 86 83 81 80 87 81 75 72 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 98 86 80 77 75 74 73 78 74 70 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.6 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.8 -51.7 -53.1 -53.7 -54.3 -54.7 -55.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 5 3 6 8 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 62 64 63 63 59 58 52 55 51 49 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 10 12 10 11 12 18 18 13 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -34 -30 -50 -53 -47 -53 -1 -21 39 39 23 N/A 200 MB DIV 83 56 52 43 34 45 28 20 28 37 2 -1 N/A LAND (KM) -418 -514 -619 -713 -822 -999 -999 -999 -999 -889 -605 -159 N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.1 32.3 33.4 34.7 36.0 38.5 40.8 42.9 44.8 46.4 47.9 49.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.4 99.5 99.5 99.3 99.0 97.1 94.0 90.7 86.4 81.6 76.1 70.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 18 CX,CY: -4/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 7. 0. -6. -13. -18. -21. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -21. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -1. -1. 3. 3. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -4. -10. -15. -16. -19. -26. -32. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102010 HERMINE 09/08/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102010 HERMINE 09/08/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102010 HERMINE 09/08/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)