* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912010 09/08/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 46 52 61 65 71 75 80 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 46 52 61 65 71 75 80 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 30 34 39 46 54 64 73 81 SHEAR (KT) 26 27 23 16 11 10 15 7 11 18 14 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 3 4 6 -1 3 -1 -3 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 71 87 101 106 103 92 94 77 72 65 79 53 60 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 134 134 134 140 141 138 133 132 136 138 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 131 131 131 132 139 141 137 131 129 131 131 129 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 10 700-500 MB RH 82 78 76 74 69 65 65 64 65 61 61 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 13 12 13 14 17 15 19 20 23 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 34 53 65 68 62 59 65 60 68 76 75 76 61 200 MB DIV 37 25 49 41 19 6 -17 -17 7 22 8 7 8 LAND (KM) 414 523 634 773 913 1224 1546 1878 1928 1705 1551 1416 1357 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 21.3 22.4 23.4 24.7 26.0 28.9 31.9 35.0 38.0 40.8 43.2 45.2 46.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 13 14 14 15 14 14 13 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 8 8 8 16 14 14 13 26 35 33 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 23. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 21. 27. 36. 40. 46. 50. 55. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST 09/08/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912010 INVEST 09/08/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED