* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952010 09/08/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 23 26 30 38 44 51 56 58 60 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 23 26 30 38 44 51 56 58 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 22 24 27 32 39 46 54 SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 8 11 9 11 8 12 10 9 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -3 -6 -6 -3 -4 2 SHEAR DIR 134 128 120 106 128 131 96 64 58 69 85 140 351 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 135 136 138 140 143 144 143 144 144 144 144 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 42 43 40 43 43 42 39 39 41 42 44 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -6 -2 1 8 9 4 13 14 10 -1 -7 -18 200 MB DIV 14 0 -1 -10 -17 -19 1 10 32 30 16 -6 -27 LAND (KM) 1385 1309 1237 1161 1093 966 875 867 914 1007 1125 1269 1425 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.3 13.1 12.9 12.6 12.0 11.5 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.4 9.9 9.6 LONG(DEG W) 143.4 144.4 145.3 146.4 147.5 150.1 152.8 155.3 157.6 159.6 161.3 162.9 164.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 12 10 9 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 25 26 11 15 36 17 23 54 51 53 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 26. 30. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 24. 31. 36. 38. 40. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952010 INVEST 09/08/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952010 INVEST 09/08/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY