* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/08/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 32 41 53 64 71 79 88 99 108 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 40 52 56 57 65 73 84 94 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 36 45 57 53 71 93 114 126 SHEAR (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 4 4 10 5 7 2 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 246 308 351 181 238 350 49 56 61 67 6 107 274 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 158 160 159 161 161 161 164 166 164 164 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 154 151 151 150 149 151 152 155 159 158 157 147 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 11 700-500 MB RH 51 53 55 55 55 57 56 55 56 54 56 54 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 25 32 29 19 20 15 5 5 1 13 6 22 200 MB DIV 17 23 35 31 25 26 13 -5 -5 -6 12 5 8 LAND (KM) 85 67 78 48 18 42 65 -4 12 190 352 303 65 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 67.7 68.8 69.9 70.8 71.7 73.2 74.6 76.3 78.0 80.1 82.3 84.6 86.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 8 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 93 95 99 101 99 108 100 103 120 143 129 152 82 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 32. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -1. 4. 11. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 16. 28. 39. 46. 54. 63. 74. 83. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/08/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 97.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/08/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/08/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)