* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912010 09/08/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 45 54 61 66 71 79 81 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 45 54 61 66 71 79 81 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 38 45 53 61 71 80 SHEAR (KT) 28 26 23 17 17 17 10 15 18 20 4 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 0 6 3 -2 0 -1 1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 82 100 101 111 97 85 110 63 54 40 25 347 257 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 134 135 142 144 144 140 133 130 130 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 130 131 132 139 142 140 135 127 124 125 127 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 80 77 74 69 69 66 66 66 69 65 69 66 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 11 12 13 13 15 17 19 20 21 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR 52 66 70 59 61 73 69 68 73 68 80 72 67 200 MB DIV 23 45 32 18 11 13 -25 41 -7 3 16 40 39 LAND (KM) 564 670 776 900 1024 1292 1539 1786 1961 1911 1848 1837 1815 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.8 15.7 17.1 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 22.7 23.7 24.7 25.9 27.0 29.5 31.8 34.1 36.0 37.6 39.2 41.0 43.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 12 11 10 8 8 10 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 9 11 17 20 17 14 13 15 25 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -4. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 20. 29. 36. 41. 46. 54. 56. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST 09/08/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912010 INVEST 09/08/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED