* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/08/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 44 46 51 59 65 70 71 72 73 73 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 44 46 51 59 65 70 71 72 73 73 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 44 46 50 54 60 67 73 78 82 86 SHEAR (KT) 29 30 25 26 16 17 8 10 10 7 9 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 0 6 6 5 7 2 1 -2 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 92 90 99 84 83 75 64 35 29 359 322 307 265 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.1 27.0 27.4 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 134 135 138 137 134 127 125 130 135 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 128 129 130 134 133 129 122 120 123 127 128 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 79 77 73 71 70 67 65 67 65 64 62 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 14 18 19 21 22 22 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 70 73 73 74 81 77 74 67 59 61 68 50 45 200 MB DIV 57 55 44 31 36 15 31 10 13 -13 4 32 40 LAND (KM) 636 725 815 915 1015 1226 1439 1689 1974 2110 1978 1871 1757 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.5 15.4 16.4 17.4 18.3 18.9 19.4 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 23.3 24.2 25.0 26.0 26.9 28.9 30.9 33.2 35.8 38.5 41.2 43.6 46.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 12 13 14 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 9 12 16 14 12 12 12 20 33 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 11. 16. 24. 30. 35. 36. 37. 38. 38. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/08/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/08/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED