* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952010 09/08/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 21 22 27 34 42 48 56 58 58 58 V (KT) LAND 20 19 20 21 22 27 34 42 48 56 58 58 58 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 22 25 29 34 40 47 53 57 SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 9 8 9 9 12 8 4 1 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 -2 -5 -8 -5 0 -2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 119 116 125 128 128 86 35 45 49 35 355 353 331 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 140 141 143 145 145 145 145 146 145 144 144 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 47 43 42 42 45 49 50 51 51 47 51 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -4 0 5 6 2 17 24 21 6 0 -14 -27 200 MB DIV 0 -15 -14 -17 -18 25 2 9 -10 -12 -1 10 -2 LAND (KM) 1305 1234 1171 1101 1039 952 955 1008 1101 1224 1340 1488 1638 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.3 12.0 11.7 11.4 10.8 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.1 LONG(DEG W) 144.9 146.0 147.1 148.5 149.8 152.7 155.5 157.9 159.9 161.7 163.3 165.2 167.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 14 14 14 13 11 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 29 28 21 15 16 17 36 55 50 54 49 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 14. 21. 27. 32. 36. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 6. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -14. -14. -15. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 36. 38. 38. 38. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952010 INVEST 09/08/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952010 INVEST 09/08/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED