* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/08/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 51 54 61 67 72 77 80 83 84 84 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 51 54 61 67 72 77 80 83 84 84 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 50 53 60 67 75 80 84 88 90 91 SHEAR (KT) 25 22 22 14 12 8 9 11 10 4 11 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 3 4 6 4 2 3 1 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 79 70 71 66 37 35 354 46 41 355 333 305 256 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 134 134 137 142 143 137 132 128 131 136 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 127 130 131 134 140 142 134 128 123 125 130 132 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -51.4 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -50.8 -50.9 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 75 70 72 69 69 70 67 70 71 74 69 69 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 16 20 19 20 20 21 23 22 27 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 79 74 74 80 76 66 61 58 62 77 73 75 57 200 MB DIV 29 19 5 15 29 14 39 -22 30 21 51 37 0 LAND (KM) 676 761 847 968 1090 1345 1621 1889 1990 1868 1781 1679 1591 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.5 17.3 17.9 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 23.7 24.5 25.3 26.5 27.6 30.0 32.6 35.1 37.5 39.8 42.1 44.5 47.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 10 11 11 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 11 14 17 15 14 14 17 30 36 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 7. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 21. 27. 32. 37. 40. 43. 44. 44. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/08/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/08/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED