* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952010 09/08/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 24 31 39 45 53 59 61 62 62 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 24 31 39 45 53 59 61 62 62 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 24 28 33 39 45 53 60 66 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 4 4 10 10 12 10 7 8 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -1 0 -4 -9 -7 -3 -2 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 131 128 128 127 85 55 19 25 39 42 40 36 4 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 144 145 147 148 146 148 148 148 148 150 149 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 45 44 51 51 52 52 54 57 53 53 50 52 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -9 -1 -1 0 0 14 18 10 4 -8 -29 -34 200 MB DIV -6 -8 -12 -9 0 13 22 39 4 -14 -14 5 10 LAND (KM) 1312 1243 1189 1128 1086 1066 1108 1187 1299 1426 1588 1791 2016 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.4 10.9 10.5 10.1 9.4 9.0 8.8 8.5 8.2 7.8 7.4 7.0 LONG(DEG W) 145.5 146.9 148.2 149.7 151.2 154.2 156.9 159.2 161.1 162.9 164.9 167.3 170.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 15 15 15 12 10 9 10 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 22 26 22 15 29 42 42 55 54 62 64 38 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 29. 34. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 19. 25. 33. 39. 41. 42. 42. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952010 INVEST 09/08/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952010 INVEST 09/08/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY