* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/09/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 44 46 49 57 63 72 77 82 85 88 89 V (KT) LAND 40 41 44 46 49 57 63 72 77 82 85 88 89 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 46 52 60 67 74 80 84 87 89 SHEAR (KT) 25 22 12 11 14 5 8 5 4 10 10 10 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 2 2 6 4 2 5 0 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 68 67 62 49 51 34 60 44 42 349 341 6 5 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 133 134 136 137 132 128 127 130 135 137 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 128 130 134 136 129 123 121 125 130 131 132 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -50.7 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 700-500 MB RH 71 73 70 70 69 71 71 70 68 66 66 67 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 18 17 17 19 19 22 23 26 30 32 30 850 MB ENV VOR 74 75 83 76 72 64 57 50 56 63 61 65 54 200 MB DIV 26 8 21 33 31 39 25 0 28 22 27 48 28 LAND (KM) 740 806 872 983 1095 1419 1744 2033 1989 1833 1696 1609 1555 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.8 16.6 16.9 17.0 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 24.3 25.0 25.6 26.7 27.7 30.7 33.7 36.4 38.7 41.2 43.9 46.4 48.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 11 13 15 14 12 11 13 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 9 10 12 13 13 13 14 26 37 42 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 8. 10. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 17. 23. 32. 37. 42. 45. 48. 49. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/09/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/09/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED