* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952010 09/09/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 25 31 37 43 50 55 57 56 56 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 25 31 37 43 50 55 57 56 56 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 23 27 32 39 46 54 60 65 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 3 5 9 14 14 8 6 6 8 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 -2 -9 -8 -6 -1 -4 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 134 152 140 116 60 42 46 50 29 51 22 12 7 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 145 147 148 148 146 147 147 147 148 148 149 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 47 49 50 50 53 52 55 58 52 52 50 50 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -2 -7 -6 -9 0 5 9 11 9 -9 -26 -39 200 MB DIV -12 -11 -9 2 18 10 26 25 11 15 9 17 7 LAND (KM) 1303 1236 1181 1121 1082 1069 1108 1198 1304 1420 1559 1734 1890 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 10.9 10.4 10.1 9.8 9.3 9.1 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.2 8.1 8.1 LONG(DEG W) 146.1 147.6 149.0 150.5 152.0 154.9 157.5 159.5 161.4 163.1 165.0 167.3 170.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 15 15 15 13 11 10 9 9 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 21 28 13 38 16 43 42 58 54 59 60 54 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 29. 34. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 23. 30. 35. 37. 36. 36. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952010 INVEST 09/09/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952010 INVEST 09/09/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY