* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962010 09/09/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 24 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 24 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 2 6 9 10 13 16 19 24 29 32 30 29 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -5 -5 -7 -2 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 240 275 283 295 300 288 274 276 295 281 274 277 281 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 139 137 133 131 130 129 130 131 131 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 36 40 38 37 35 35 37 36 37 41 44 47 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -12 -9 -7 -3 7 13 13 13 19 22 25 10 200 MB DIV 6 15 23 28 25 27 16 -10 0 -1 3 -10 -2 LAND (KM) 755 750 770 792 834 933 939 965 978 1008 1058 1104 1178 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.8 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 155.5 156.8 158.1 159.4 160.6 162.7 164.2 165.4 166.3 167.0 167.8 168.5 169.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 9 7 6 5 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 39 42 44 39 27 27 30 34 38 40 43 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. -1. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -7. -9. -11. -12. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962010 INVEST 09/09/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962010 INVEST 09/09/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY