* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/09/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 41 47 55 64 70 76 81 80 81 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 41 47 55 64 70 76 81 80 81 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 34 35 36 41 47 54 62 69 77 81 82 SHEAR (KT) 23 16 14 14 11 10 6 4 7 6 9 7 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 2 2 1 5 2 2 0 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 77 66 57 52 40 39 63 30 20 57 301 288 233 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.5 27.8 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 134 135 138 137 133 129 127 130 134 135 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 128 130 133 137 134 129 124 121 124 126 127 127 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.4 -50.8 -49.5 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 74 70 69 68 70 71 70 68 71 66 69 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 17 16 16 18 17 19 22 23 25 29 27 31 850 MB ENV VOR 73 78 73 68 63 54 47 49 62 62 71 66 65 200 MB DIV 10 13 26 23 21 41 11 17 16 19 36 36 4 LAND (KM) 751 836 925 1063 1203 1515 1817 2081 1909 1795 1742 1712 1680 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.9 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.3 18.2 19.0 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 24.4 25.3 26.1 27.4 28.7 31.6 34.4 37.2 39.7 41.9 43.9 45.9 47.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 11 13 14 14 14 13 11 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 9 11 13 13 13 13 15 29 36 34 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 14. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 20. 29. 35. 41. 46. 45. 46. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/09/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/09/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED