* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962010 09/09/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 22 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 22 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 7 11 14 16 16 14 17 25 26 31 27 29 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -2 1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 2 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 285 293 309 321 301 277 263 285 282 286 287 284 291 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 140 137 134 132 130 131 131 131 130 130 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 43 40 43 41 41 41 43 44 46 47 48 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -18 -19 -14 -6 10 17 14 13 12 15 6 1 200 MB DIV 16 5 22 26 33 38 8 -7 -3 -7 -19 -10 -20 LAND (KM) 826 847 894 938 994 1063 1074 1095 1125 1178 1217 1266 1309 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.3 13.9 14.3 14.6 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 157.1 158.5 159.9 161.1 162.3 164.1 165.4 166.3 167.1 167.8 168.5 169.2 169.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 8 6 4 4 3 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 38 48 51 38 35 32 34 35 37 38 38 40 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962010 INVEST 09/09/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962010 INVEST 09/09/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY