* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/09/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 40 43 49 58 64 70 72 78 80 78 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 40 43 49 58 64 70 72 78 80 78 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 37 38 40 46 53 61 67 73 78 81 82 SHEAR (KT) 20 16 13 11 13 9 6 2 5 2 8 7 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 3 0 0 2 1 3 1 0 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 66 58 60 39 20 54 46 95 354 241 288 226 238 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.4 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 134 136 136 132 128 127 130 134 136 137 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 128 131 136 135 129 125 122 124 127 128 130 130 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -50.8 -50.2 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 11 10 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 70 67 68 68 66 63 69 67 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 15 15 17 17 20 20 23 23 28 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 79 72 70 65 61 56 51 57 70 75 71 55 66 200 MB DIV 4 23 21 23 34 14 10 20 7 34 65 21 2 LAND (KM) 756 855 956 1123 1292 1607 1939 2021 1859 1748 1716 1678 1558 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.5 18.0 18.8 19.5 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 24.5 25.5 26.4 28.0 29.5 32.4 35.5 38.6 41.2 43.5 45.4 47.7 50.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 13 16 15 15 15 13 12 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 9 10 12 10 11 13 21 35 35 36 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 791 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 4. 3. 7. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 23. 29. 35. 37. 43. 45. 43. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/09/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/09/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED