* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952010 09/09/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 31 41 49 58 65 65 64 60 58 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 31 41 49 58 65 65 64 60 58 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 28 34 41 50 58 63 63 59 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 10 9 10 5 5 7 3 4 1 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -6 -8 -6 -6 0 -4 0 0 4 0 SHEAR DIR 153 132 70 64 58 59 47 68 46 347 298 248 236 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 145 146 146 143 142 141 140 138 134 131 130 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 52 51 53 54 53 54 55 54 52 49 47 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 0 5 6 6 6 0 1 -16 -24 -28 -25 200 MB DIV -8 0 18 23 38 34 48 38 41 33 40 34 2 LAND (KM) 1181 1108 1051 1003 972 934 938 940 942 937 927 923 935 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.5 12.1 12.8 13.4 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 148.6 150.0 151.3 152.6 153.9 156.0 157.7 159.0 159.9 160.8 161.6 162.2 162.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 9 8 6 5 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 25 16 24 16 27 53 54 46 29 29 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 14. 14. 11. 8. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 11. 21. 29. 38. 45. 45. 44. 40. 38. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952010 INVEST 09/09/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952010 INVEST 09/09/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED