* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/09/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 37 40 43 49 57 64 71 74 76 75 74 V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 40 43 49 57 64 71 74 76 75 74 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 37 38 41 47 54 61 68 73 76 76 75 SHEAR (KT) 16 13 9 8 7 8 4 3 11 12 13 20 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 2 2 5 3 0 -1 -4 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 57 60 54 30 23 57 335 1 292 270 253 245 247 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 131 132 129 127 126 126 130 134 135 136 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 127 129 126 123 121 120 123 125 125 126 127 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -51.5 -50.3 -50.4 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 68 67 69 67 65 66 66 68 69 67 64 65 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 16 17 18 20 20 24 26 29 30 32 850 MB ENV VOR 83 78 74 74 68 59 66 69 72 69 56 57 59 200 MB DIV 10 18 25 36 41 3 13 20 45 27 36 0 57 LAND (KM) 873 994 1116 1280 1443 1765 2085 2024 1903 1826 1801 1790 1663 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.6 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 25.6 26.7 27.8 29.3 30.8 33.8 36.8 39.5 41.8 43.9 45.7 47.7 49.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 15 15 14 14 12 11 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 9 10 9 10 12 15 21 35 34 31 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 14. 22. 29. 36. 39. 41. 40. 39. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/09/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/09/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)