* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/09/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 32 37 49 62 71 78 82 87 91 96 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 32 37 49 62 71 78 82 87 91 96 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 23 25 27 34 43 53 65 76 86 92 96 SHEAR (KT) 15 9 9 13 16 13 22 15 22 17 24 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -4 -2 -3 -4 -5 -3 -3 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 83 95 112 82 74 95 69 93 63 80 67 96 76 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 157 157 158 158 158 153 151 151 153 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 151 151 152 152 154 156 157 151 149 147 148 152 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 10 9 10 9 10 9 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 70 70 67 67 70 69 70 71 68 66 69 70 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 37 38 38 41 43 52 43 53 53 46 60 63 59 200 MB DIV 49 50 52 41 51 75 57 51 40 38 52 33 55 LAND (KM) 166 164 164 177 188 213 244 193 122 102 262 350 333 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 61.0 61.4 61.7 62.3 62.9 64.3 66.1 67.9 70.0 71.9 73.8 75.5 77.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 6 6 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 108 104 97 81 74 77 85 92 65 79 85 77 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 28. 34. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 17. 18. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 29. 42. 51. 58. 62. 67. 71. 76. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/09/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 92.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/09/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/09/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)