* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952010 09/09/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 29 38 46 52 50 48 44 39 36 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 29 38 46 52 50 48 44 39 36 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 29 35 42 47 49 48 45 41 SHEAR (KT) 3 7 9 7 9 6 4 3 10 11 15 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -6 -8 -10 -6 -2 -1 1 2 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 112 61 50 41 34 66 338 300 308 302 279 258 254 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 146 146 145 143 143 142 139 137 133 131 128 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 53 53 51 53 56 56 52 46 45 44 42 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 4 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 0 2 3 7 4 8 -4 -17 -30 -33 -35 200 MB DIV 0 17 18 18 13 43 45 63 17 41 10 -1 7 LAND (KM) 1133 1074 1033 997 978 960 984 996 1011 1006 1001 969 915 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.4 10.6 11.0 11.5 12.2 13.1 14.0 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 150.1 151.5 152.8 154.1 155.3 157.2 158.8 160.0 161.1 162.0 162.9 163.6 164.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 29 19 18 34 17 16 51 56 49 26 31 28 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 2. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 18. 26. 32. 30. 28. 24. 19. 16. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952010 INVEST 09/09/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952010 INVEST 09/09/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY