* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/10/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 35 37 46 55 65 75 82 85 86 84 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 35 37 46 55 65 75 82 85 86 84 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 31 33 37 44 52 62 73 80 81 78 SHEAR (KT) 17 14 14 13 14 9 8 4 5 12 12 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 1 4 2 2 5 3 -3 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 53 57 57 61 76 67 68 50 340 304 251 271 241 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 136 135 134 130 127 130 134 137 137 136 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 133 133 132 127 122 124 127 128 127 124 123 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.2 -50.9 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 68 66 67 68 69 65 65 69 63 64 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 17 16 18 20 20 22 24 26 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR 83 77 75 73 73 66 72 84 89 66 52 50 53 200 MB DIV 16 19 27 25 5 12 19 45 29 25 32 23 58 LAND (KM) 1052 1193 1335 1502 1668 1989 1989 1826 1697 1633 1632 1624 1565 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.6 17.0 17.2 17.5 18.1 18.9 19.6 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 27.3 28.6 29.9 31.5 33.0 36.0 38.7 41.3 43.6 45.7 47.4 48.9 50.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 12 12 13 14 26 36 40 36 41 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 7. 16. 25. 35. 45. 52. 55. 56. 54. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/10/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/10/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)