* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/10/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 40 50 60 66 72 77 85 93 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 40 50 60 66 72 77 85 93 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 44 55 68 80 90 100 SHEAR (KT) 17 11 15 18 14 15 14 6 10 6 14 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -4 -4 2 -1 -2 1 -3 0 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 84 83 78 84 96 54 88 58 117 110 115 107 117 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 160 159 160 162 161 156 154 156 159 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 151 153 155 155 157 160 160 154 152 154 158 164 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 71 68 66 66 66 64 63 64 63 65 59 60 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 40 38 38 45 43 33 41 32 37 47 41 59 200 MB DIV 59 28 14 32 57 61 51 -3 17 15 37 1 12 LAND (KM) 166 186 208 233 255 293 357 268 238 308 293 258 285 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 61.0 61.4 61.7 62.3 62.9 64.5 66.4 68.6 70.9 73.3 75.7 78.1 80.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 108 106 99 83 81 86 114 110 64 94 83 98 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 28. 34. 39. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 20. 30. 40. 46. 52. 57. 65. 73. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/10/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 95.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/10/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/10/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)