* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/10/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 41 50 61 68 79 84 86 88 88 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 41 50 61 68 79 84 86 88 88 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 30 31 34 40 48 58 69 77 81 81 80 SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 10 7 9 6 8 13 7 9 4 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 3 3 2 2 0 -4 -2 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 67 63 60 83 79 47 40 334 277 262 235 247 251 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 136 135 133 129 129 133 137 138 138 139 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 135 134 133 130 126 124 127 129 129 128 125 123 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.4 -51.5 -50.3 -50.5 -49.5 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 67 66 68 66 66 68 67 65 66 64 68 68 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 16 17 18 19 22 20 26 26 29 31 33 850 MB ENV VOR 74 75 74 74 68 69 79 88 81 58 54 54 65 200 MB DIV 18 24 28 20 3 21 22 46 15 24 14 64 55 LAND (KM) 1204 1360 1517 1683 1849 2042 1845 1710 1621 1576 1543 1488 1458 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 28.7 30.2 31.6 33.2 34.7 37.6 40.5 43.0 45.2 47.1 49.0 50.2 51.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 14 14 13 11 10 9 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 13 12 12 14 21 33 38 42 45 50 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 20. 31. 38. 49. 54. 56. 58. 58. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/10/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/10/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)